A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
